SocGen lays out two FOMC scenarios

by finansakrobat


In the US Credit Comment over the weekend, Societe Generale made a call that I think may be good:  

Near-term focus will shift to Bernanke’s testimony before Congress on Wednesday and the release of the FOMC minutes with possible updates to its QE exit principles. Specifically, our economists and Treasury strategy team anticipate that: 

1. Bernanke’s appearance before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, is likely to present a balanced picture of the improvements in housing and payroll while stressing the challenges in manufacturing and the slower global economic backdrop; we do not believe that the Fed Chairman will signal any imminent policy shift 

2. With the FOMC May 1 minutes, the Fed may refresh its exit principles. Last published in June 2011, the principles have become stale and are in need of a revamp. In addition to extending the timeframe for asset sales, which has already been hinted at, the Fed could also refine the guidance on asset purchases and hopefully eliminate some of the vagueness. Doing it now has the advantage of cementing a new long-term plan before the transition period to a new Fed Chairman which could begin as early as this summer. 

Under this scenario, we could see some further near-term rate volatility. 

On that note, it's interesting to watch what trade recommendations BNP are sending to their clients: