These are the three possible outcomes, as per BNP Paribas:
Our economists have laid out a couple of potential scenarios for the negotiations. The three main scenarios are (a) Congress picks up negotiations where they left off last week and Democrats/ Republicans meet halfway on taxes, (b) fiscal tightening measures are postponed by 6m-1y involving extension of Bush tax breaks, payroll tax benefits and raising the debt ceiling for a year, and (c) Bush tax breaks are extended but other components are voted on in a case by case basis next year. Scenario (a) represents the best outcome, (b) is modestly positive (our economists view most likely) and (c) represents the most negative. Our economists had been favouring (a) until last week, but now think that (b) looks most likely.